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Friday Squid Blogging: Bobtail Squid – Source: www.schneier.com

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Source: www.schneier.com – Author: Bruce Schneier

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ResearcherZero August 22, 2025 10:14 PM

@Name

If they can stop criminals before they act then they do not have to worry about the difficulty of conviction. Conviction to deal with all those old case files in storage.

Not much intelligence.

During the Crimean War, British cavalrymen galloped straight into Russian cannon fire.

Looking at past military mistakes helps us see the dangers of flawed decision-making, reckless risk-taking, and poor strategic planning. We continue to live in a time in which history is ignored, facts seem like an inconvenience and there is a prevailing ideology – that one’s opinion is more important, regardless if you can back it up with facts or not.

‘https://commonplacefacts.com/2025/08/19/charge-of-the-light-brigade/

The Supreme Court first allowed the president to fire independent agency officials.
Trump can now dismantle independent agencies and regulatory bodies without restraint.
https://verdict.justia.com/2025/07/30/the-courts-power-grab-over-independent-agencies

New Out of Box Software

The U.S. is now without qualified directors and experienced leaders in many senior roles.
The federal departments and agencies which protect the well-being of the public and the nation are headed by noobs. The people in these positions also make decisions that effect the lives of people outside the United States and have an important function in making decisions about information sharing and cooperation with partnering nations and military.

https://www.jurist.org/commentary/2025/03/the-dangerous-decline-of-expertise-in-federal-government/

ResearcherZero August 22, 2025 10:58 PM

Political ignorance and the depletion of knowledge as a resource, is the new Tragedy of the Social Commons.

The politicization of complex subjects often presents a narrow view and over simplifies arguments during public discourse. As a result, the ability to identify matters of real public concern and engage in a broader discussion about them, has been weakened. This has very real consequences for our own understanding of important civic and moral concerns.

Without a deeper understanding – through our own actions – we put ourselves at greater risk of compromising not only our own well-being, but that of others and wider community itself.

‘https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2025/07/98373/

Name August 23, 2025 2:21 AM

@ResearcherZero that vpn article seems outright malicious. At that point, discussion becomes pointless and intelligence irrelevant, it’s not ‘ignored’ per se, just focused elsewhere. (Nothing for us to worry about)

This kills any remaining options of being able to challenge or discuss the changes suggested

Robin August 23, 2025 3:25 AM

@not important, all:

This is a link to the original paper about AI going rogue:

‘https://ai-2027.com

Other sites offer alternative endings to the scenario.

lurker August 23, 2025 6:23 PM

@Robin

ai-2027[dot]com is an interesting scifi thought experiment, but anybody who has read enough Aristotle, Locke, Kant, &c. must be wincing at the casual use of words like think, learn, reason, understand.

More concerning in a man-vs-machine scenario is the man-vs-man subplot overwhelming the main story. It would be interesting to compare a US -and- China version, rather than US -or- China.

not important August 23, 2025 6:27 PM

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/north-korea-secret-missile-poses-072101358.html

=The Sinpung-dong missile base is located just 27 kilometers (about 17 miles) from the China border. It’s believed to store up to nine nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) as well as their mobile launchers, said the report by Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

The base sits in a narrow mountain valley, cut in half by a stream, and measures 22 square kilometers (about 5,436 acres) – bigger than New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport.

Experts say that its location near the border lends a geographical advantage – countries like the United States might be wary of targeting it since any fallout could impact adjacent China.

the base carries transporter launchers or mobile launchers – which can quickly shoot and move to a new position.

“During times of crisis or war, these launchers and missiles will exit the base, meet special warhead storage/transportation units, and conduct launch operations from dispersed pre-surveyed sites,” the report said.

North Korea is believed to possess between 40 and 50 nuclear warheads, along with the means to deliver them across the region and potentially to the US mainland.=

Clive Robinson August 23, 2025 8:30 PM

@ Ismar, ALL,

With regards the ACM paper,

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2024/06/new-blog-moderation-policy.html

You’ve linked to, it should carry a “health warning”.

Because it’s not just an up-hill struggle to read. Due in part to the fact it’s written in what reads like “Domain experts” trying to be more “non expert friendly” and comming off like parents trying to answer their childs “Why is the sky blue?” Question.

Thus you get things like,

“such as top-p or top-k sampling with nonzero temperature.”

And no further explanation. Thus a non domain reader knows not if it is a throw away statment or something of significant relevance. With further no way of knowing what relevance the writers ascribe to it…

Thus for non domain experts the paper suffers one of four fates,

1, It imparts confusion not clarity.
2, It gets put down / ignored.
3, The reader consults a traditional search engine.
4, The reader asks an AI to expand / explain.

Some will realise that the best option for those with expertise in other domains is at the moment still ‘3 – consult a traditional search engine’.

But AI slop is polluting the internet, and not only does that have a bad feedback effect on “Hover it all up AI”, but less well publicised it effects traditional search engines as well. Which additionally are also suffering from Corry Doctrow’s “enshitification” problem as well as a double whammy. Thus combined making them increasingly worse than useless or a significant grueling challenge to use, that at times feels like wading through a turbulent stream of diarrhoea…

Thus of the four options available to non domain experts the two (3/4) that might have helped them forward are being polluted with noise and bias and becoming in effect useless.

Leaving only the first two options (1/2) where a non domain experts gets at best no value in the paper and have at the very least wasted their time, if not worse.

I do not know if this is because the authors are just poor writers, or they were trying to put to much into too little assigned space… But what is clear is,

“They have not achieved meaningful communications.”

Thus few can judge the merit of the message they were attempting to convey.

But even now a traditional search has been polluted… To see why I say

“that at times feels like wading through a turbulent stream of diarrhoea…”

Lets “walk it through”,

If you “duck-duck” with AI turned off you get nine poor examples before you get to,

https://codefinity.com/blog/Understanding-Temperature%2C-Top-k%2C-and-Top-p-Sampling-in-Generative-Models

How many people would go that far?

And unfortunately whilst it sort of explains Top-K and Top-P to a level most can start productively thinking about in terms of probability they were taught in school… Temperature remains a mystery behind the “door-stop” of the technical term “logits” that do not get explained in a meaningful way…

And another search gives a page,

https://peterchng.com/blog/2023/05/02/token-selection-strategies-top-k-top-p-and-temperature/

Does a less well explanation of Top-K and Top-P but… explains Temperature via Softmax in a way few would understand, with only the pictured graphs giving a clue.

But of “logits” there is no sign…

To save the pain of looking through many pages with eye aching formula, in a “Digital Neural Network”(DNN) neuron there are a large number of inputs from tokens or previous layer neurons. These inputs are multiplied by the “weights” these are summed. and thus an output range between “plus and minus infinity” is potentially possible. This needs to be brought into a usable range –ie normalised– before it can be used in the next layer.

This normalisation is sometimes done via a “Sigmoid function” which has certain desirable characteristics for this. Because it is a mathematical function with a graph that has a characteristic S-shaped or “sigmoid” curve, that reversibly maps any real input via the curve to an output in the ranges from minus one to one. This curve can be done via the exponential or “log”(ln) function so in this case is called a “logistic function” And this is where the statistical term “logit” comes from as it’s “the inverse transform of the logistic function”. Or more readily it’s “the logarithm of the odds p/(1-p)” so,

logit(p) = ln(p/(1-p))

However…In the world of AI and artificial neural networks Sigmoid and Logistic get used as synonyms. Worse they use “logits” as a shorthand for the raw “not yet normalised” input to the final layer normalisation function (SoftMax).

Also remember as far as we can tell natural neurons have different equivalent output curves that are not reversible so not Sigmoids, and in effect are the integration of multiple variable frequency pulse train inputs so not really linear sums of the inputs either.

The question of speed and required accuracy of the Sigmoid curve normalisation arises and a crude three straight line linear approximation has been used successfully. With a closer approximation done faster by a look-up table. Thus giving a “memory time trade off”.

But what of “Temperature” this is a function carried out on the logits vector prior to the Softmax Sigmoid function normalisation and can be thought of as a multiplicative or scaling rather than additive bias. However to the eye on the output of the Softmax functions it looks somewhat like an additive shift or bias. The result is it effects the degree of “randomness” that some see incorrectly see as “creativity”.

Which brings me back to my point about the ACM paper and the four options. As can be seen from my partial demonstration above, option 3 of consulting a traditional search engine can be grueling work for those without sufficient domain knowledge, but also it has low relevance to the argument being made…

Which is a shame because the message in the paper is getting lost in the message for all but a few, who would in effect be “part of choir/congregation”.

poo stick in poo bear August 23, 2025 11:24 PM

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lurker August 24, 2025 1:42 AM

@Clive, Ismar

re CACM price of AI, skip to the conclusions for the best bits:

Fortunately, we have extensive experience in building usable processes based on nondeterministic components that may sometimes produce erroneous results or fall prey to an attacker’s meddling—namely, our fellow human beings.

Where we monitor humans, have multiple humans cross-check each other, and enforce compliance regimens, … These methods have been in use for millennia, even in the most critical of systems, and their generalizations will continue to be useful in the age of AI.

ie. don’t be dazzled by the blinkng lights, treat it as a new coworker: it has to earn our trust.

Ismar August 24, 2025 3:19 AM

@Clive
I think you are overthinking this. What I wanted to convey (and article is clear about) is that the best we can hope for AI security is mitigation rather than perfection.

Clive Robinson August 24, 2025 6:34 AM

@ Name, ResearcherZero,

With regards the VPN issue there is background you need to be aware of.

First off the person behind it is Dane Da Souza who got the Child Commissioners job under Johnson.

When she started she was “wrong footed” over adult violence to children by relatives, carers, etc. Whilst Wales, Scotland baned smacking etc out right and brought legislation in to that effect, she neither spoke or acted on the issue untill later challenged. Thus politically this is one of her weak points others use as leverage.

https://globaleng.biz/person/id/824

“In December 2020, the Second Johnson ministry nominated de Souza for the post of Children’s Commissioner for England, the most powerful child protection post in the country Later that month, at a time when numerous Children’s Commissioners, including those for Wales and Scotland, had already committed to banning corporal punishment against children, de Souza was criticised for failing to do so.”

Behind the “Online Safety Act”(OSA) and trying to keep out of sight are another set of decidedly unsavoury groups,

“In response to Ofsted’s Review of sexual abuse in schools and colleges on 10 June 2021, which was prompted by the Everyone’s Invited movement, de Souza was commissioned by Government to review online safety for children with a focus on the prevalence of sexualised content”

The fact that OSA will be extraordinarily harmful of all children and adults privacy and later mental health, as well as setting them up for identity theft apparently is one of the aims.

That is OSA is in reality about surveilling and censoring the UK population with the side effect of making them vulnerable to those carrying out crime for gain etc.

Oh and another decidedly suspect organisation involved is OfCom who’s senior representatives have perjured themselves in court to gain convictions and likewise persuaded others such as the discredited head of “British Approvals Board for Telecommunications”(BABT) and several regulatory test houses to do the same for pecuniary reasons.

There are more snakes and real nasty creepy crawlies under the OSA rock than most realise.

Thus the nicest things you can say about OSA are, that it is designed to,

1, Suppress freedom and speech.
2, Create a private surveillance market of anyone in the UK.
3, Bring in significant sums of money by fines that can not be contested.

So it’s in effect an augment to “The snoopers charter” and earlier “RIPA”

As for Dame da Souza, well she is quite compliant due to her earlier gaff that gets used as leverage against her and always will be.

The next logical step for those who wish to avoid being a “data subject under surveillance” is to build a tunnel via the likes of AWS etc, or for those a little wiser rent / use space in a data center outside of the UK.

Which will probably end up in further nonsense such as mandatory client side scanning of the form Russia is allegedly putting in place on all foreigners…

Then there is the very recent “upgrade” to “The Great Firewall of China” that effects VPN’s that we’ve yet to find out sufficient about that could be seen as a model.

[1] Some regard “The Boris” as being one of the more evil of UK PM’s if not the worst so far this century. Primarily because of his attacks against people who excercise a then –but now nolonger– legitimate right to protest. Giving away all UK citizen data via a US Buddie to assist in building the worlds largest surveillance database at Palantir used by amongst others US ICE and other stooge law enforcement agencies.

As I’ve mentioned before He is also known for a degree of violence that then gets washed away by subservient authorities and reliance on a faux bumbling persona. So as his party were known to be broadly supportive of “Corporal Punishment” on children people should think if that actually was part of the selection criteria for Dame de Souza…

ResearcherZero August 24, 2025 7:16 AM

@Name

RE: that vpn article seems outright malicious.

As you alluded to, the style of how we write is within our control. The modern convenience of electronic communication makes it all too easy to produce content that fails to properly explore the subject or is unhelpfully antagonistic. Perhaps the author could of examined the wider negative effect of “quick fixes” and a lack of nuance in the government policy.

The following article discusses the ease of typing compared with hand writing. It is part of a number of wider issues that are caused by automation that include the effect on public discourse, cognition and attention span. Other influences that effect or capacity to cope with stress, also affect our cognition and ability to make well thought through decisions (such as financial pressure, health and social relationships).

Despite the resources of government and media, they do seem to have fallen short in the delivery of communication and messaging in many areas. Perhaps this too is part of the wider symptoms of the modern communication environment and the decline in handwriting.

(I worry about the decline in my own literary skills and lazy rubbish I might puke out.)

Writing by hand activates a much broader and richer cognitive process. With more effort comes a greater consideration of the content produced. Longer periods of thought deciding how to structure and edit the verse. Extra care in the words chosen to create a clearer message and a better articulated construct. The are further benefits of writing by hand.

‘https://www.mid-day.com/sunday-mid-day/article/likhna-zaroori-hai-experts-highlight-why-it-is-important-to-continue-writing-by-hand-23590844

Countries begin suspending postal services to the United States to avoid tariffs.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/european-postal-services-suspend-us-packages-shipment-tariffs/

What was it that I was saying again? [loses train of thought] 😉
https://williamcfox.substack.com/p/is-society-getting-stupider-a-serious

Clive Robinson August 24, 2025 9:32 AM

@ Jon,

With regards,

Unlocking shopping carts

Ever thought how much those shopping cart disable wheels are like the mechanics of an electronic lock for hotels and the like?

For instance the outside door handle is “clutched” to the traditional door latch/lock spindle. So the handle is effectively useless unless the clutch pulls in to connect the handle and spindle.

Back in the 1980’s I was a design engineer for a lock company (Unikey) after I decided working in the crazy part of the offshore gas and oil industry was nolonger fun (or the crap wages).

The existing lock they had was not quite what it could be and it unfortunately used a solenoid to pull in a gear link on a rocker.

That was a security issue because a large magnet would activate it and the door could be opened with no logging or key-card required.

It was also not very efficient.

I designed a simple mechanical device (a soft iron slug on a weak spring) such that if a magnet was brought near the lock the slug blocked the mechanics connected to the solenoid and stoped the dore handle connecting to the latching mechanism.

I’d brought a friend on board to help in the development and we discussed using a clutch mechanism not to disimilar to that in the trolly wheel system. Though we dropped the idea of the teeth as it was slightly problematic in that it was slow and hungry not just to engage but disengage. So after bringing his father in who was a skilled engineer with about half a centuries experience in related mechanics we went with a friction design instead. This ment we did not have to run a geared down motor to pull the scissor mechanism.

We went with a drop pin that acted as a gear tooth, that used the rotation force of the human hand on the door handle to pull it in and thus the clutch to mechanically link the handle to the lock spigot.

It was a clean design, did not suffer from magnet problems and used next to no power.

We were going to take out a patent but the managing director leo, who shall otherwise remain unnamed decided that he was not going to spend the money… My friends father therefore took out a patent instead. Both me and my friend left the company very shortly after Leo made his choice and all the drawings and mechanical prototypes that had been made by us using our own materials returned to our keeping.

My friends father used the clutch design in other work (vortex mixers) and made some money, as well as selling a licence or three on the lock design which had interested a number of high security companies and it ended up in high end electronic safes. Four decades later the clutch design is effectively out of patent but licence deals can be endless. But also remember that there are primary and secondary patents. Primary patents like the clutch design rarely make money, but secondary patents applying the primary paternt to specific applications if gained at the right time in the right way can not just earn money but block others getting into the market in competition…

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Sidebar photo of Bruce Schneier by Joe MacInnis.

Original Post URL: https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2025/08/friday-squid-blogging-bobtail-squid.html

Category & Tags: Uncategorized,squid – Uncategorized,squid

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